Danation: Florida’s State House Races, Districts 1 through 30
Photo by David July via flickr.com/photos
Well, it’s that time of year. We’re about a month away from the Aug. 14 primary, so I’m going to start the ball rolling at looking through each and every race for the state Legislature, state Senate, and House of Representatives. Every candidate is included in the writeup, except for no-party-affiliation candidates (because why bother?) and write-in candidates because those are almost always a political ploy. In Florida, primaries are open — that is, anyone can vote in them — if there are only candidates from one party on the ballot. So, for example, if only two Democrats are running, than anyone can vote in that primary, since it essentially becomes the general election. But if candidates from several parties are in the race, then the primaries become closed — in other words, only members of the party can vote. Both parties have gotten around the open primary rule by sticking write-in candidates in any race where only their own party members are running, thus insuring that no one from outside the party can vote. Yay democracy! Below, I’ve categorized the first 30 of the 120 state Legislature seats, which covers North Florida. Next Wednesday, I’ll put up districts 31-60 (eastern Central Florida), then next Friday districts 61-90 (western Central Florida and northern South Florida), then districts 91-120 (the rest of South Florida) the Wednesday after that. I’ll follow that up with state Senate races on Friday, July 20, U.S. House races the following Wednesday, and finally summarize the whole odyssey that Friday.
It’s important to get this stuff out there ahead of the primaries, rather than in November, because in many districts, the races simply aren’t competitive between the two parties, even with the recently passed Fair Districts amendments. These districts are all newly drawn based on 2010 U.S. Census information, but as you’ll see below, in many cases, would-be state Legislators are running unopposed, so you’ve got about as much choice in representation as your typical Syrian or North Korean. Again, hooray for democracy!
STATE HOUSE RACES, DISTRICTS 1-30
District 1: Northern Escambia County, the end of the panhandle
Candidates: Republican Clay Ingram
Outlook: Ingram is running unopposed.
Pick: Ingram
District 2: Southern Escambia County, Pensacola and Gulf Breeze
Candidates: Republicans Jeremy Bosso and Clay Ford
Outlook: Bosso is a newcomer, while Ford is the current state Rep. in District 3, running essentially for re-election in the newly drawn 2nd district. He’s a known entity, has raised far more money, and despite Bosso’s running as a Christian conservative, Ford has the endorsement of Florida Right to Life.
Pick: Ford
District 3: All of Santa Rosa County except Gulf Breeze, northern Okaloosa County
Candidates: Republicans Doug Broxson and Jayer Williamson
Outlook: Similar to District 2, we have a political newcomer (Williamson) vs. a state Rep. seeking re-election in a newly drawn district (Broxson). Unlike in the 2nd, though, Williamson has raised over $30,000 – chump change in South Florida, but enough to make a run for it in the panhandle. On the larger issues, he’s running a campaign to the right of Broxson, promising to “fight against any attack on Florida’s Castle Doctrine, Stand Your Ground and the 1987 Firearm Preemption Law,” along with similar bromides on “government overreach” and “conservative family values.” But Broxson is a life-long resident of Milton, the district’s largest town, and performed well during the BP oil-spill crisis. There’s just not a lot of reason to toss him out of office, and Williamson hasn’t given voters any good ones.
Pick: Broxson
District 4: Southern Okaloosa County – Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Niceville
Candidates: Republican Matt Gaetz
Outlook: Gaetz is running unopposed.
Pick: Gaetz
District 5: Walton, Holmes, Washington, and Jackson counties, along with a thin strip of northern Bay County
Candidates: Republicans Marti Coley and Danny Glidewell
Outlook: If you’ve been reading through the races up till now, this will sound eerily familiar. Marti Coley is running for re-election in a newly drawn district, while Danny Glidewell is a political novice trying to fill the seat. This race is more like District 2 than 3, though – Glidewell has raised little cash and faces an almost impossibly tough upset victory. The former Walton County Sheriff’s deputy and director of the Walton County Corrections Department lists his occupation as “sports official” on his Facebook site. He refs high-school games.
Pick: Coley
District 6: Bay County, including Panama City, Panama City Beach, and Mexico Beach
Candidates: Republican Jimmy Patronis
Outlook: Patronis is running unopposed.
Pick: Patronis
District 7: Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty, Franklin, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor and Lafayette counties, along with the southwest portion of Leon County. Includes Bristol, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Madison, Monticello, Perry, and Mayo
Candidates: Republicans Halsey Beshears, Don Curtis, Jamey Westbrook, and Mike Williams, and Democrats Thomas Dickens, Robert Hill, and A.J. Smith
Outlook: Finally, we’ve got a race. Or maybe not. At the very least, we’ve got candidates from both parties, so that’s something. But Curtis, Westbrook, and Williams are all running way behind Beshears in fundraising, which is especially important in such a sprawling district. Meanwhile, Dickens, Hill, and Smith have all raised enough cash to be interesting, but Dickens and Smith have about $50,000 a pop to Hill’s $10,000, and both Dickens and Smith have compelling stories, the former an Iraq War combat veteran, the latter a former cop.
Pick: Beshears and Dickens in the primary, Beshears in the general
District 8: Gadsden County and a big chunk of the middle of Leon County, including part of Tallahassee
Candidates: Democrat Alan Williams
Outlook: Williams is running unopposed.
Pick: Williams
District 9: The rest of Leon County, including most of Tallahassee
Candidates: Republican Bradley Maxwell and Democrat Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda
Outlook: This could be a serious race. Neither candidate has primary competition, and both have raised a similar amount of cash. But Vasilinda is the incumbent candidate in District 9, and the redrawn district should only benefit her – the new District 9 loses some area along the Georgia border and adds territory around Tallahassee.
Pick: Vasilinda
District 10: Hamilton, Suwanee, Columbia, and Baker counties, along with a small patch of northern Alachua County
Candidates: Republican Elizabeth Porter
Outlook: Porter is running unopposed.
Pick: Porter
District 11: Nassau County, along with the east side of Duval, including Jacksonville Beach, Hilliard, and Callahan
Candidates: Republicans Janet Adkins and Cord Byrd and Democrat Dave Smith
Outlook: Adkins has raised six figures; Byrd and Smith haven’t raised five figures between the two of them.
Pick: Adkins in the primary, Adkins in the general
District 12: Eastern Jacksonville
Candidates: Republican Lake Ray and Green Karen Morian
Outlook: C’mon. Green Party?
Pick: Ray
District 13: Downtown Jacksonville
Candidates: Democrat Reggie Fullwood
Outlook: Fullwood is running unopposed.
Pick: Fullwood
District 14: Northwestern Duval County, including parts of Jacksonville
Candidates: Democrat Mia Jones and Libertarian Jonathan Loesche
Outlook: C’mon. Libertarians?
Pick: Jones
District 15: Southwestern Duval County, including parts of Jacksonville
Candidates: Republican Daniel Davis
Outlook: Davis is running unopposed.
Pick: Davis
District 16: Southeastern Duval County
Candidates: Republican Charles McBurney
Outlook: McBurney is running unopposed.
Pick: McBurney
District 17: North St. Johns County, including St. Augustine
Candidates: Republicans Mike Davis, Kim Kendall, and Ronald “Doc” Renuart
Outlook: Doc Renuart was written out of his old district in Ponte Vedra Beach in the redistricting, so he’s carpet-bagged his way down south to St. Augustine. Newcomers Davis and Kendall want to send him back up to Ponte Vedra. Davis has pulled in some business-group endorsements, and those sort of groups usually back the incumbent in Republican races.
Pick: Tossup, though if I gotta pick, I go Davis
District 18: North Clay County, including Orange Park
Candidates: Republican Travis Cummings
Outlook: Cummings is running unopposed.
Pick: Cummings
District 19: Union, Bradford, and Putnam counties, along with most of Clay County, including Lake Butler, Starke, and Palatka
Candidates: Republican Charles Van Zant
Outlook: Van Zant is running unopposed.
Pick: Van Zant
District 20: Most of Alachua County and northeastern Marion County
Candidates: Democrats Clovis Watson and Marihelen Wheeler
Outlook: As in most states with only candidates from one party running, there is a negligible write-in candidate on the ballot. This insures that only Democrats vote in the Democratic primary (or Republicans in the Republican primary). And that means a more-activist, well-informed voter. And that means that Watson should get stomped. Twice a turncoat, Watson jumped from the Democrats to the Republicans and then hopped back to the Democrats in 2008 when Obama took the White House in a vain effort to secure a federal gig. Rumors persist that he’s already making deals to jump to the GOP if Democrats are stupid enough to elect him this time around.
Pick: Wheeler
District 21: Dixie and Gilchrist counties, as well as the western tip of Alachua County, including most of Gainesville
Candidates: Democrats Aaron Bosshardt and Andrew Morey and Republican Keith Perry
Outlook: Bosshardt has raised way more money, but Morey has some political experience in as much as he worked in the State Attorney’s office prosecuting bad guys. It’s not much, but it’s at least a compelling narrative, and voters love that sort of thing. Of course, that doesn’t matter much if no one knows who you are.
Pick: Tossup, but with a gun to my head, Bosshardt, who then goes on to beat Perry in the general
District 22: Levy County and the southern part of Marion County
Candidates: Republican Charlie Stone
Outlook: Stone is running unopposed.
Pick: Stone
District 23: East Marion County, including Ocala
Candidates: Republican Dennis Baxley
Outlook: Baxley is running unopposed
Pick: Baxley
District 24: South St. Johns County, Flagler County, and west Volusia County, including Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, and Pierson
Candidates: Democrats Doug Courtney and Milissa Holland and Republican Travis Hutson
Outlook: Flagler is a deeply conservative area filled with aging retirees who trust Obama about as far as they can throw him – which is to say, not at all. Still, the newly drawn district mostly consists of Flagler County, and county commissioner Holland hopes to convince those voters that the general election should be about Flagler County having a voice in the state House. Whichever of Courtney and Holland wins, St. Johns County businessman Hutson awaits him or her in the general election, armed with a mountain of cash.
Pick: Holland in the primary, Hutson in the general
District 25: East Volusia County, along the beach from Ormond Beach to New Smyrna Beach, with just a sliver of land along Daytona Beach
Candidates: Republican Dave Hood
Outlook: Aside from an indie candidate, Christina Spencer-Kephart, Hood is running unopposed.
Pick: Hood
District 26: Central Volusia County, from DeLand in the southwest to Daytona Beach and Holly Hill in the northeast
Candidates: Democrat Dwayne Taylor
Outlook: Taylor is running unopposed.
Pick: Taylor
District 27: South Volusia County, from DeBary and Orange City to Oak Hill
Candidates: Democrat Dennis Mulder and Republicans David Santiago and George Trovato
Outlook: Sheesh. Little money raised all around, no obvious charisma … Santiago was a city commissioner half a decade ago, and Mulder was mayor of the same town, Deltona. The race might play up some history from those candidates’ Deltona days, when the mayor’s political enemies organized a recall election against Mulder after the mayor supported “possible lawsuits against people who speak out, write or blog against leaders and actions in city government,” a nakedly unconstitutional bit of stupidity. The other candidate, Trovato, become City Attorney in Deltona after getting his law degree from Pat Robertson’s Regent University and was subsequently fired over charges of incompetence. Oy.
Pick: Santiago in the primary and the general
District 28: East Seminole County, including Oviedo, Sanford and Winter Springs
Candidates: Republicans Jason Brodeur and John Bush and Libertarian Franklin Perez
Outlook: Brodeur should lose. Because he is a moron. But he is also an incumbent, and one who has raised well in excess of $100,000 at that. He could lose to the right candidate, but that candidate is not three-time Winter Springs mayor Bush.
Pick: Brodeur by a mile
District 29: West Seminole County, including Longwood and Lake City
Candidates: Democrat Mike Clelland and Republicans Chris Dorworth, John Moffitt, and Jeffrey Onest
Outlook: Dorworth, the incumbent, has suffered from numerous financial scandals recently and is in the throes of a divorce. Onest is negligible. Moffitt is Dorworth’s only real competition, but only just – Dorworth has raised more than a quarter million dollars. In the general, the Republican primary winner will face Democratic firefighter Clelland.
Pick: Dorworth in the primary and the general
District 30: Northwestern Orange County, including Maitland
Candidates: Democrat Karen Castor Dentel and Republican Scott Plakon
Outlook: Dentel, the sister of U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, looks to break into politics by upsetting an incumbent Republican in a newly drawn, but ever-so-red, district. Lots of points for chutzpah, but good luck with that.
Pick: Plakon
Sweeney has picked a few bad eggs in this laudry list but none stands out worst than Chris Dorworth. Sweeney points out that Dorworth is plagued with financial scandals but picks him anyway over honest John Moffitt? Here’s why, Dorworth has lined his pockets with more graft money than any other politician in recent history. His failure to pay his wife and children, his failure to pay his own mortgage, these things are all indicators of a politician gone wild. Dorworth is fearless and drunk with power. When all the money stops flowing and all Dorworth’s friends feel the money pipeline drying up, they will switch endorsements on a dime. We need to get the crooks out of Tallahassee.
I agree John! Get the crooks out of Tallahassee! There are so many representatives that need to be replaced with honest, hard working people!
I need to clarify something based on John Balzer’s comment. The “pick” section of my breakdowns is not in any way an endorsement of any candidate. The “pick” is not who I think should win, but rather who I think will win given fundraising, party registration within the district, news stories about the candidates, voting history within the district, and a host of other factors. I don’t really do endorsements except in very rare circumstances, though if people read my commentary regularly, it’s pretty obvious what I think about the parties, many major political figures, and the political ideologies and practicalities that, for better or worse, govern our country today.
Dan,
I disagree with your selection for House District 3. I have met both candidates and feel Williamson would best represent the people of our community. “Chump change,” maybe, but I feel many candidates waste money and should spend more frugally. The person with the most money doesn’t mean they have more community support; they have more deep-pocket support from lobby groups, large corporations, etc. who are generally not voters in their district.
Williamson spoke last night about his view on the Second Amendment and Stand Your Ground which are huge issues in Northwest Florida. If you look at Broxson’s voting record, you’ll see he was the only Republican that voted against House Bill 45. Even though he voted against that bill, he is lying to the people and stating that he supports our Second Amendment rights. Personally, I don’t like liars and I appreciate the fact that Williamson opened my eyes on this issue.
You are also incorrect in your statement that Broxson is a life-long resident of Milton; that would mean he currently lives in Milton, which he does not. He lives in Gulf Breeze “Midway” and has lived there for years.
Performed well during the BP oil-spill crisis, HA! That was just Doug’s opportunity to appear on local television channels. That is all he is good for; making it look like he did something! Ask any of the other state representatives from the surrounding districts, they’ll tell you he is taking credit for things he hasn’t actually done. I bet you could even call Congressman Jeff Miller and he would tell you the same! Broxson says he took the lead to unite the 8 Florida Counties affected by the spill. No he didn’t!!!
Your statement, “There’s just not a lot of reason to toss him out of office, and Williamson hasn’t given voters any good ones.” makes it sound like you’ve been to our community, listened to the facts, spoke to the voters and sat down with the two candidates. You haven’t and until you do, I don’t think you should write any more articles about our district. I guarantee if you sat down and spoke to both men, you would change your pick. Even if you didn’t sit and talk to either of them, do your research and you will probably be writing another article with corrections to this one.
Concerned Citizen,
Mike T.
Hey Mike! Thanks for your thoughtful comment. Again, as I wrote to Balzar, my “pick” section should in no way be considered an endorsement of any candidate. If they were, this whole thing would look a lot different.
I think Williamson has as good a chance of winning on Aug. 14 as anyone in his position throughout the state. From all the financial records I’ve seen so far, no non-incumbent Republican who’s running against an incumbent in a primary has raised as much money as Williamson. The more I read, the more I like his chances. And I know you don’t want to believe that fundraising has much of an outcome on the race — that “The person with the most money doesn’t mean they have more community support; they have more deep-pocket support from lobby groups, large corporations, etc. who are generally not voters in their district” — I can tell you this much. I’ve been doing a similar breakdown of elections every cycle since 2004, and I could probably count on one hand the number of times someone in Williamson’s situation has actually won an election. It’s not that it hasn’t happened, but it’s extremely difficult.
Thanks for the analysis, Dan. And don’t count out Karen Castor Dentel in HD30, for sure! She is a long-time resident of the district (unlike her opponent) and has taught a child, neice, or family friend of many who live there. Plakon’s extremist views do not reflect the values of the district, plus Karen Castor Dentel’s years of teaching and PhD in education give her the skills needed to bring expertise and workable solutions to Florida’s education system.
Thanks for your shout-out to Marihelen Wheeler, too. Her commitment to protecting Florida’s land and water in this area so important to groundwater throughout the state is a benefit to all Floridians.
Hi thank you for mentioning me for dist. 25. However you had my name incorrect. And one thing to keep in mind, many people have to run as npas due to a new law regarding changing registration 365 days prior to qualifying but have the backing of the dem. or rep. Parties. So 2012 will be he year that an NPA WILL WIN! Thanks, Christina spencer-kephart
Thanks for writing, Ms. Spencer-Kephart, and sincerest apologies for transposing the hyphenated last name. I’ve corrected it in the story. Best of luck in your campaign!
Ms. Spencer-Kephart,
I do admit to be stupid for not running as a Democrat so the Honorable David Hood had a real “challenger”; so explain to me if YOUR name is on the ballot as Christina Spencer-Kephart why YOU are commenting on YOUR name as not correctly shown here? If YOUR name is small case spencer-Kephart. I removed my name from the 2012 ballot to save votes for YOU but YOUR campaign so far is even making me concerned that YOU will not get 24 percent of the vote; Sorry winning an election is costly and the Honorable Republican is so far ahead that YOUR comment here does nothing even to get my vote. What are YOU saying about YOUR name? I am stupid so explain how the Florida Divisio of Elections on YOUR campaign form got YOUR name wrong?????? 386 235-0380 anytime 24/7.
On Sunday, August 5, 2012, The Gainesville Sun published a short stump speech by Aaron Bosshardt who is running for State House in District 21. I write not so much to respond to Candidate Bosshardt’s published article, but to call to question larger concerns regarding the Democratic Primary for the District 21 House seat and the Democrats’ approach to candidates and primaries.
On July 14, 2012, The Political Hurricane, a “progressive blog,” posted a link to a video produced by the Florida Democratic Party (http://thepoliticalhurricane.com/2012/07/14/fdp-shows-not-taking-sides-in-primaries-hypocrisy-in-latest-commercial/ or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYXd-GwbRUk&feature=player_embedded ). The blog aside, the video is apparently authentic, and as of July 14, the video was not available to the public without these links. The video includes clear support for three Florida House candidates that must still win Democratic Primaries in order to run in the general election. One of these candidates is Aaron Bosshardt, who appears in the video. Traditionally, the Florida Democratic Party has not supported specific candidates against other Democratic candidates in primaries. However, the video clearly suggests that the Democratic Party has foregone the democratic process in favor of supporting particular candidates prior to the outcome of the primary. The ethical implications of such pre-determination of candidates seriously shake my confidence and trust in the local Democratic Party.
Furthermore, on July 26, 2012, The Gainesville Sun reported (“Candidates for State, Local Office Plead their Cases in Debate”) that Candidate Bosshardt did not attend the Alachua County Democratic Black Caucus event, instead sending his campaign manager Erin Murphy, former president of UF’s College Democrats and current Cultural Liaison for the Young Democrats, to represent him. According to The Sun, Murphy explained that Bosshardt “was the ‘viable’ candidate to vie for the seat. At this point, he has in excess of $100,000 in campaign contributions.” I am disturbed that the Democratic Party now supports candidates not based upon qualifications or platform—neither of which were addressed in The Sun’s report about Bosshardt and the Alachua County Democratic Black Caucus event—but upon monetary success. Given the current political climate in Florida and nationally, I worry about the implications of running candidates for office based solely upon financial backing. Now, more than ever, this is the wrong reason to support candidates.
Bosshardt’s published stump speech (August 5, 2012; Gainesville Sun) explains that he is “running to improve our education system, protect our land and water, and to create quality jobs and opportunities.” Given the evident backing from larger Democratic organizations, his failure to attend the Black Caucus event, and the premise that he is a viable candidate based upon the funds he has raised, I am curious about these claims and Bosshardt’s ability to actually represent this constituency. Bosshardt’s 2011 Form 6 Full and Public Disclosure of Financial Interests lists his net worth as of June 4, 2012 as nearly one and a half million dollars. Given recent arguments about wealth in the United States and socioeconomic divisions, this distinction is more than relevant. I worry even more that Bosshardt exemplifies a growing trend to move the Democratic Party toward a philosophy that viability of candidate is based in personal wealth and the ability to raise funds. I wonder, too, if the failure to attend the Black Caucus event is, in fact, a side effect of this trend.
As to claims that that Bosshardt wants to “protect our land and water,” I have to point out the dubious nature of such a claim. On April 28, 2011, The Sun reported (“Homebuyer Near Koppers Sues Real Estate Agency, Ex-homeowners”) that Carla Melgarejo was suing Bosshardt’s company for failure to disclose facts about her property’s proximity to the Cabot-Koppers Superfund site—property that Bosshardt Reality sold her. The Sun article quotes Aaron Bosshardt as saying that information about the Superfund site was “public knowledge” and “community knowledge” suggesting that Melgarejo should have known and that it was her responsibility for buying the property. The article also explains that Aaron Bosshardt claimed that part of the failure to disclose came from the fact that there were mixed messages from the EPA about whether the site had been cleaned up and whether it would have to be disclosed. This side-stepping reeks of other corporate anti-environmental, anti-consumer rights rhetoric we’ve heard over the years from the Right. (Interesting, too, that at a June 20th event hosted by the Alachua County Young Democrats and the Stonewall Democrats of Alachua County, Bosshardt outlined an idealistic platform grounded in ethics and fighting corruption in Tallahassee; I suppose transparency and disclosure fall outside of his parameters of what is ethical). If the Democrats wish to maintain that Bosshardt is a viable candidate because of his financial backing, then I must question the message they send regarding ethics, business, and the environment. Are Florida Democrats working toward more Republican-friendly platforms? Given that Bosshardt has previously shown his support for Republican candidates (in 2010, Bosshardt posted several Tweets showing his support for Republican Susan Baird in the Alachua County Board of County Commissioners election, including one in which he boasts, “I’m helping Susan Baird with her campaign blog” [September, 30, 2010]), his business ethics, and his “already on the inside” position with the Florida Democratic Party, I have a difficult time seeing Bosshardt as a Democratic candidate, unless the message we’re being sent as voters is that the Party controls the primaries and candidates are only viable if they look like Republicans in (million dollar) Democratic clothing.